2023 Russian airbase activity – or – the pressure of Ukraine’s counter offensive
Data from radar satellites showed two peaks in Russian military airport activities. 21 airbases near the Ukrainian border and on occupied Crimea were analyzed1.
The peak in June/ July clearly shows that the Russian airforce was indeed under pressure from the Ukrainian counter offensive. But we can also see an activity increase since November 2023.
1 Akhtubinsk, Dyagilevo, Dzhankoy, Engels, Gvardeyskoye, Kacha, Kirovskoye, Krymsk, Kuschtschovskaya, Lipetsk, Luninez, Millerovo, Primorsko, Rostov, Saky, Sevastopol, Shaykovka, Taganrog, Voronezh, Yeysk, Zernograd
How is the activity measured?
SAR satellites (synthetic aperture radar) send out radar signals, which are then scattered back by the earth’s surfaces and measured again by the satellite. The amount of energy going back to the sensor depends on several factors, but mainly two: surface material and geometry.
That is why, aircrafts can be detected very well with such satellites: the metal and the shape create quite a large signal – at least a much higher signal, than the flat concrete on airfields. Now when we have several hundred satellite images over one year, we can compare the amount of energy scattered back throughout the year and therefore estimate, if a lot of aircrafts, vehicles or whatever have been on the bases or not.
Check out our website to have a look at the activity at each of those airbases:
Update March 2024:
The first two months of 2024 give us more insight on the Russian air force campaign. There are three airports with a significant activity decrease: Luninez, Kirovskoye and Sevastopol. Sevastopol – or Belbek – probably lowered its operations due to the storm shadow attack on its headquarters on the 31st of January 2024.
The four airports north-east of Ukraine (Lipetsk, Shaykovka, Voronezh and Dyagilevo however showed a significant increase in activity during 2024. In general we can observe a shift of Russian air force assets closer to Moscow.
The overall activity on the observed Russian airbases seems to be a little bit increased, but not as much as during Ukraine’s counter offensive.
